上海市崇明主要城镇生态环境安全预警初探

在对崇明城桥镇、堡镇和陈家镇生态环境安全现状评价基础上,利用生态环境安全预警理论和方法,运用情景分析法分3种情景对崇明城桥镇、堡镇和陈家镇未来15年生态环境安全状况进行预测。并根据综合指数模型及不良状态预警模型、恶化趋势预警模型和恶化速度预警模型对主要城镇生态环境安全进行预警评判,结果表明:崇明3个主要城镇未来15年生态环境总体仍将处于安全状态。

A Preliminary Study on Eco-environment Security Warning in Main Towns of Chongming of Shanghai

Using the theories and methods of warning, the ecological security warning was researched for three major towns of Chongming,Shanghai in 2010, 2015 and 2020. On the basis of the present eco-environmental condition assessment of Chen-qiao Town , Bao Town and Chenjia Town , by establishing the index system of eco-environmental warning and by scenario analyzing, the future eco-environmental conditions were predicted by three separate scenes, according to the data in 2005. Besides , by the general index model and poor or worse state warning model, slow deterioration warning model and rapid deterioration warning model, the assessment and judgment were made. The results indicated that the whole eco-environmental condition of the three major towns would generally continue to be safe in the following 15 years.