危险化学品运输风险分析研究综述

危险化学品运输风险分析是安全运输决策的依据和事故预警和应急救援的关键。笔者对国内外近20年来的危险化学品运输风险分析的理论和方法进行了系统的回顾和评述。以时间为主线,归纳总结出4阶段5个方面的研究内容,即核燃料或核废料的运输风险分析研究;危险化学品运输的事故率和伤亡数分布研究;危险化学品运输风险度量模型研究;应用现代信息技术更精确、更全面地分析危险化学品运输风险分析研究和危险化学品运输风险分析框架研究,并对其进行评述,指出在风险定义、风险的不确定性和风险的影响因素等方面的研究不足。最后针对国内的研究现状,提出了进一步研究的方向。

Review on Risk Analysis of Dangerous Chemical Transportation

Risk analysis of dangerous chemical transportation is the basis of safety transportation decision and the key of accident warning and emergency rescue. Theories and methods for risk analysis of dangerous chemical transportation at home and abroad in the recent twenty years are reviewed; five aspects of research contents in four stages are summarized, namely, research on risk analysis of nuclear fuel and nuclear waste transportation, research on the distribution of accident rate and casualty number, research on the risk measurement model for dangerous chemical transportation, research on the risk analysis of dangerous chemical transportation by using modern information technology and research on risk analysis framework for dangerous chemical transportation. Then, weakness of research on risk definition, risk uncertainty and influencing factors to risk is pointed out. Finally, further researching directions are put forth according to the current researching state in China.