基于DEMATEL-ANP的重大件船舶大风浪航行安全指标选取

为了改善重大件船舶在大风浪条件下航行的安全性,保证船舶、船员、重大件货物安全到港,在查阅大量文献、咨询专家并结合实际经验后,构建了重大件船舶大风浪安全指标体系。首次将DEMATEL-ANP(决策试验与评价实验室-网络分析法)方法引入大风浪安全领域,建立了重大件船舶大风浪航行安全的DEMATEL-ANP结构。通过DEMATEL方法计算了指标间综合影响矩阵,并绘制因果图对各指标进行分类。借助综合影响矩阵和重大件船舶大风浪安全指标体系,通过ANP方法梳理网络结构并计算了混合权重。确定了对安全影响较大的指标,并对其进行管控。通过与AHP方法的对比,表明该方法更加合理、客观地考虑了指标间的相互影响,提出的DEMATEL-ANP结构合理、可行,能够很好地应用于大风浪安全领域,对保证船舶安全具有一定的指导意义。

Ways to choose safety indicators for the heavy-duty ocean-going ships navi-gating on the high seas based on the DEMATEL-ANP method

This paper has been engaged in a study of the navigation safety of the heavy oceangoing ships in hoping to improve the safety of such ships in the conditions of strong waves so as to ensure the safety arrival of the ships,the crew members and the major cargoes at the corresponding seaports.As has been referring to a large number of bibliographies and a great amount of related academic research documents,we have chosen 4 primary indicators and 15 secondary indicators to examine the mutual influence among the above mentioned indicative factors at all levels.Seeing the interaction among the indicators,it would be difficult to express the relationship among all the said indicators clear and cut in a simple AHP way.Therefore,we would like to choose the DEMATEL-ANP method to establish a DEMATEL-ANP structure for the safety of heavy-duty ships navigation against the strong storms and waves.It is just for such a reason that we would like to build up a matrix of synthetic relationship among the indicators adopted by the DEMATEL method.According to the analysis based on the DEMATEL method,it would be possible for us to prepare a casual diagram to determine if the other indicators can significantly affect the passengers in the shop(A1),the ship (A2),and the management of the seasfare(A4).The results of the central attention extent show that the people (A1) and the management (A4) may both have a great impact on the entire system.The ANP method can also be adopted to weigh the relationship among the different indicators with the seasfare.And,then,the ANP network based on the indicator system of heavy-duty ship navigation on the high seas can singnify the relationship among all the indicators intuitively.Through the comprehensive impact matrix obtained by the DE-MATEL method and the assessment results obtained by the ANP method,it would be possible to work out the the mixed weight as the importance ranking result.Thus,in the given paper,the DEMATEL-ANP method has been primarily introduced to the field of the safety of navigation up to the high seas,and the results of its application indicate that the method can be well adapted to the evaluation of the heavy-going storms and waves safety.According to the sequence of the indicators’importance,the following 4 indicators,i.e.the operational ability of crew members(A11),the equipment status(A22),the captain’s decision-making capability(A43),and the sense of responsibility(A13),can be chosen as the key ones for management and control,which are supposed to have quite a great instructive significance to ensure the safety of the shipsfare.Thus,it can be worked out through calculation via the AHP method that the ranking results are very close to those obtained by using the DEMATEL-ANP,which implies that the results worked out via the DEMATEL-ANP method can be said of a certain significant credibility,for the relationship among the various indicators can be taken as the calculation results from the structure of DEMATEL-ANP.And,so,the conclusions we have gained from the above calculations can reflect the actual situation more objectively and truthfully so that the said appropriate indicators can be chosen more accurately to control the goal to be chosen.