冬季减排对广东省空气污染的影响分析

使用WRF-SMOKE-CAMx模型模拟了2017年1月广东省各市的主要大气污染物,模型对SO 2,O 3,PM 10和PM 2.5的模拟效果较好,但对NO 2存在低估,目前的排放源清单可能普遍低估了NO x的排放量。与基准年2015年相比,预测2020年广东省人为源的SO 2,NO 2,CO,PM 10,PM 2.5,VOCs,NH 3排放分别下降40%,32%,37%,23%,25%,31%,18%。在气象场与2017年1月一致的假设下,2020年同期广东省各市平均NO,NO 2,SO 2,PM 10,PM 2.5月均值下降率分别为31%,19%,17%,14%,14%。O 3平均浓度出现反弹,涨幅均值为11%,主要是由NO滴定效应减弱导致,显示了广东省臭氧污染防治的难度。不同地区气态污染物浓度变化率存在较大差异,2020年冬季珠三角地区的臭氧浓度上升显著,粤东与粤北的上升幅度相对较低;各市气溶胶的变化率相对较接近。

Impact of Winter Emission Reduction on Air Pollution in Guangdong Province

The WRF-SMOKE-CAMx model system is used to simulate the major air pollutants in various cities of Guangdong province in January 2017.The simulation results of SO 2,O 3,PM 10 and PM 2.5 are better,but there is an underestimation of NO 2 concentration.The current emission inventories may generally underestimate the NO x emissions.Compared with the base year 2015,the predicted emission of SO 2,NO 2,CO,PM 10,PM 2.5,VOCs and NH 3 in 2020 of Guangdong province will decrease by 40%,32%,37%,23%,25%,31%and 18%,respectively.Under the assumption that the meteorological field is consistent with January 2017,the average monthly concentration decline rates of NO,NO 2,SO 2,PM 10 and PM 2.5 in Guangdong will be 31%,19%,17%,14%and 14%respectively in January 2020.The average concentration of O 3 will rebound with a mean increase of 11%,mainly due to the weakening of NO titration effect,which shows the difficulty of ozone pollution control in Guangdong province.There are large regional differences in the concentration change rate of gaseous pollutants.In the winter of 2020,the ozone concentration in the Pearl River Delta will increase significantly,the increase in eastern and northern Guangdong will be relatively low and the change rate of aerosols in each city will be relatively close.