基于成本收益理论的井场作业人员不安全行为决策分析

为有效制定油气田井场作业人员不安全行为的防范措施,降低事故发生可能性,基于成本收益理论建立油气田井场作业人员的行为决策模型,通过仿真计算定量分析了不同影响因素对不安全行为产生的影响程度。结果表明:正向激励和负向激励对不安全行为的降低幅度为21.8%,17.2%,负向激励和监督力度共同作用下不安全行为可降低44.8%。油田企业在保证利润的前提下应优先提升HSE奖励水平,合理控制罚金水平的同时加大管理监督力度,从而有效减少作业人员不安全行为的发生,保障企业的安全生产。

Decision-making Analysis on Unsafe Behavior of Oilfield Operators Based on Cost-Benefit Theory

In order to effectively formulate preventive measures against unsafe behavior of operators in oilfields and reduce the possibility of accidents,based on the cost-benefit theory,a behavioral decision-making model for oil and gas field operators is established,and the influence degree of different influencing factors on unsafe behavior is quantitatively analyzed by simulation calculation.The calculation results show that,positive incentive and negative incentive can reduce unsafe behavior by 21.8%and 17.2%respectively,and under the combined action of negative incentive and supervision,unsafe behavior can reduce by 44.8%.On the premise of guaranteeing profits,oilfield enterprises should give priority to improving the level of HSE reward,reasonably controlling the level of fines and strengthening management supervision,so as to effectively reduce the occurrence of unsafe behavior of operators and ensure the safety of production.