基于系统动力学的空管安全绩效预测

为了提高绩效管理的科学性,实现对安全绩效的预测分析,针对空管运行系统的动态性、复杂性和延迟特性,引入系统动力学方法。首先,从管理和结果的角度分析指标间的因果关系,然后在因果图的基础上:1)采用网络层次分析法计算指标权重;2)建立绩效评价的系统动力学模型,由指标权重和评分规则确定指标间的关系方程,进行仿真预测,得到基于指标关系网络的绩效趋势。从查找绩效下降原因和绩效改进措施两方面分析绩效预测的应用,结果表明,运用系统动力学方法分析绩效,不仅可以逆向找到影响绩效的关键指标,还能提前预测决策变化对绩效的影响,保证决策的有效性,提高系统的安全产出。

Prediction of ATM safety performance based on system dynamics

In order to improve the scientific nature of the performance management and to realize the predictive analysis of the safety performance,the system dynamics method is adopted to establish a performance evaluation model in term of the complexity,dynamic and delay characteristics of the ATM system. According to the thinking mode of the system dynamics,the safety management framework of ATM can be studied from the following two dimensions: the safety management and the safety status.With the support of an Air Traffic Management Sub-Bureaus,an index system can be established,with a cause-effect diagram being gained through an analysis of the possible relationships among the indexes. Based on the cause-effect diagram,the Analytic Network Process method can be used to construct a hierarchical network of indexes and calculate the index weights. According to the index weights and the scoring rules,the relation equations among the indexes can then be determined. Moreover,the performance trend based on the index relation network can also be gained through simulation. The application of the performance prediction model can be summed up as 2 aspects: finding the cause of performance decline situation and verifying the promoting effect of the performance enhancement measures. The research results can prove that the application of the system dynamics to the performance analysis can not only find the key indexes that affect performance in the backward sequence in combination with a cause-effect tree,but can also predict the impact of the decision changes on the performance in advance so as to provide necessary reference to the performance management,ensure the effectiveness of the decision-making,as well as to improve the safety output of the system. Therefore,theoretical analysis has also shown that it is feasible to evaluate the performance by using the system dynamic method when the variable relationship is explicit. And,what is more,the dynamic prediction of the method can embody the concept of the safety management better than the traditional index evaluation approach.