黑龙江省能源消费碳排放量情景预测

采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会规定的碳排放计算方法，测算了黑龙江省2002-2010年的能源消费碳排放量。运用Kaya分解法，预测了黑龙江省2011—2020年在不同情境下的人均碳排放量。研究表明，2002-2010年黑龙江省能源消费碳排放量以年均8％的速度增长，人均碳排量年均增长率为8．18％。在四种经济增长情境下，黑龙江省2011—2020年人均碳排放量的年均增长率均远远低于2002-2010年，但人均碳排放量仍逐年增长，且GDP增长速度越快，人均碳排放量增长也越快。

Scene Prediction of Energy Consumption Carbon Emission of Heilongjiang Province

By using IPCC carbon emission calculation formula, it calculated the energy consumption carbon emission of Heilongjiang Province from 2002 to 2010. And by using Kaya formula, its scene predicted the capital carbon emissions of Heilongjiang Province from 2011 to 2020. The resuits showed that energy consumption carbon emissions of Heilongjiang Province were continuing to rise at an annual rate of 8 % during 2002 to 2010, the capital carbon emissions with an average annual growth rate of 8.18 %. In four economic growth scenes, the average annual growth rate of the cap- ital carbon emissions of Heilongjiang Province would be much lower than that of 2002 - 2010, but the capital carbon emissions would continue to grow, and the faster growth of GDP the rapider growth of capita carbon emissions.