重大危险源区域事故应急非结构化模糊决策应用研究

针对目前我国应对重大危险源突发事故的管理和决策主要依赖于相关领导或专家掌握的知识及经验的现状,将非结构化模糊决策方法(Non-structural Fuzzy Decision Method,NSFDM)和事故后果模拟方法相结合,以区域范围内受重大危险源潜在事故影响的企业为决策对象,以减小事故影响范围,降低事故严重程度为目标,建立起重大危险源区域事故应急决策的多准则决策方法,以期帮助安监职能部门优化配置应急救援资源,提高应急响应绩效,减少国家和人民的经济和财产损失。以广州市某公司丙烷储罐区为实例,在对其进行沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸(Boiling Liquid Expanding Va-por Explosion,BLEVE)事故模拟的基础上,运用非结构化模糊决策方法,对该丙烷储罐区BLEVE事故的处理,提供了应急决策支持。

Application of Non-structural Fuzzy Decision on Regional Accident Emergency Management of Major Hazard Installations

Based on practical demands of regional accident emergency management of major hazard installations,non-structural fuzzy decision method(NSFDM) and accident consequence simulation methods are combined to present safety management administration and related enterprises a multi-criteria decision support method,which is focused on enterprises that might be affected by the potential accident consequence of major hazard installations,for regional accident emergency management of major hazard installations,this method is aimed to optimize the management of emergency resource,promote the performance of safety management system,decrease the fatalities and property loss.An application is presented by applying this method to a propane storage district.Based on the consequence simulation of the propane storage's boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion(BLEVE) accident,non-structural fuzzy decision method is applied to provide emergency decision supports for the propane storage's BLEVE accident.