上海市居民消费碳排放的实证分析

居民消费碳排放是国内外温室气体排放研究的重要问题。利用1997～2010年上海市统计数据,分别采用改进的投入产出模型法、碳排放系数法核算了上海市居民间接和直接能源消费产生的碳排放,分析了上海市居民消费的碳排放变化、居民消费碳排放的城乡差异、各部门对居民间接能源消费碳排放的贡献。结果表明:(1)1997～2010年上海市居民消费产生的碳排放呈逐年上升趋势,间接能源消费是居民消费的碳排放的主要来源,在居民消费碳排放总量中占有较大比重;(2)1997～2010年上海市城镇居民消费碳排放呈逐年上升,农村居民消费碳排放呈下降趋势,居民消费碳排放存在着显著的城乡差异;(3)14个部门对居民消费碳排放的贡献大小不同,其中文教卫生商务及其他服务、交通运输仓储及信息服务、食品制造及烟草加工业3个部门对城乡居民消费碳排放的贡献最大;(4)提高各部门能源利用效率、降低部门单位产出的碳排放、引导居民向低碳产品消费的转变是居民消费碳减排的有效措施。研究结果可为上海市居民生存碳排放的评估提供数据支持,为政府部门制定碳减排措施、引导居民低碳消费提供理论指导。

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON CARBON EMISSIONS OF RESIDENTS CONSUMPTION IN SHANGHAI

In the context of global warming,climate change related adverse environmental crises,and governmental implementation of Kyoto Protocol,industrial energy consumption and associated carbon emission have been paid much attention.However,as witnessed with European and Northern American case studies,carbon emission from residential or household section has remarkably surpassed that of the industrial section since the past two decades in the developed countries.Recently,in newly emerging industrialized countries such as China,India, Brazil,etc.,huge requirement for energy consumption may result in more pronounced impacts on global carbon emission and global climate due to their huge population and strong demand for economic development in the world.On the other hand,previous studies on residential indirect carbon emission were very scarce.Considering in the coming decades over 60% of global population will live in the cities,residential carbon emissions associated with energy consumption should not be neglected due to out dated ideas for environmental sustainability. Thus,accounting residential energy consumption and associated carbon emission have been two key issues in the researching fields of curtailing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and governmental policies for adaptation to climate change worldwide. In this paper,Shanghai city,the largest city and financial center in China,was selected as an example. Based on literature review,an enhanced input output model and carbon emission factors method were used to calculate the indirect and direct carbon emissions associated with residential energy consumption on local scale during 1997 and 2010. Furthermore,trends in carbon emissions associated with residential consumption,carbon emission gap between urban and rural residents,and the contribution of the six major sectors in local economy (containing fourteen key industries) to indirect energy consumption carbon emissions,were analyzed. The results showed as follows. (1) Accompanied by substantial population growth due to inter province rural urban migration,local rural urban transition,and industrial transition,total residential carbon emissions in Shanghai exhibited an increasing trend from 1997 to 2010,of which indirect carbon emission associated with energy consumption was a major source in residential total carbon emissions,and accounted for dominant proportion. (2) There was an increasing trend in both direct and indirect carbon emissions associated with urban residential consumption in Shanghai over the study period. In contrast,carbon emissions associated with rural residential consumption showed an overall downward trend due to the ongoing trend in decline of rural residents under rapid urbanization,which caused remarkable rural urban transition and changed life style of former rural residents. It is noted that there is a significant difference in carbon emissions between the rural and urban residents,given the fact that urban residents enjoy high level life style and lead to higher carbon emission due to their much higher disposable personal income (DPI) than the rural residents. (3) Six major sectors played the different roles in residential indirect energy consumption and associated carbon emissions,of which the culture,education,sanitation,commerce,and service sector (CESCS),transportation,storage,and information service (TSIS) sector,food produce and tobacco fabrication (FPTF) sector had the biggest contribution to the total carbon emissions of the urban and rural residents.(4) From the viewpoint of consumer,to enhance energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions at the micro scale of per unit output of six major sectors,and guide residents change their presence for luxury life style and to consume low carbon products are effective and sustainable way for carbon reduction. In summary,the results presented in this paper may provide sound support to the further assess to residential survival carbon emissions in Shanghai and provide theoretical guidance for government departments to make policies toward cutting carbon emissions and to guide people for a low carbon life.