江汉平原土地利用演变对区域径流量影响

江汉平原是我国重要的粮食基地也是武汉城市群发展的腹地，了解区域土地利用演变对流域水文的影响有助于为土地规划政策及水资源可持续发展提供决策支持。以2000～2004年为模型校准期，2005～2009年为模型验证期构造SWAT模型并模拟区域内主要流域的月、年径流量。然后借助双累积曲线研究江汉平原内主要江河的人类活动对径流的扰动作用并对比分析1980和2010年二种土地利用模拟情景下径流量的变化情况。结果表明：模型验证能较好的模拟区域内长江及汉江的径流量；随着降雨量的减少，土地利用变化对径流量的影响在增加；1980～1990年人类活动对径流的影响主要体现在水利设施的投入和林地减少上，2000年之后土地利用尤其是建设用地的增加对径流的影响日趋变大

EFFECT OF LAND-USE CHANGES OF THE JIANGHAN PLAIN ON THE REGIONAL RUNOFF

The Jianghan plain is the important grain base in our country and the heart of Wuhan urban agglomeration.Understanding the impact of regional land use change on watershed hydrology help to making land use planning policies and providing decision support for the sustainable development of water resources.This study calibrated the data during 2000-2004 and validated the data during 2005-2009 to structure SWAT model,and used this model to simulate monthly and yearly main runoff in the region.Then by means of double mass curve,the effect of human activities in main rivers of the Jianghan plain on disturbance of runoff was studied,and the changes of runoff under simulated scenarios between 1980 and 2010 were also comparatively analyzed.The results showed that model validation could be better simulated runoff in the Yangtze River and the Hanjiang river basins in the region.As the decrease of rainfall，the effect of land use change on runoff was increasing.Impacts of human activities during 1990-1995 on runoff were mainly reflected on the reducing forest land and inputs in the water conservancy facilities.After 2000,land use particularly the increase of construction land use increasingly impacted on runoff