我国天然气风险及评价方法分析

为有效促进天然气行业朝着更加安全的方向发展,对天然气风险及其相关的风险评价方法进行深入分析,总结出我国天然气开采、运输及使用过程中的输送管道风险、液化天然气风险、输气站场风险、勘探开发风险、钻井工程风险和地下储气库风险,并归纳出这六大类风险相对应的风险评价研究内容、产生风险的原因、风险评价方法等。可以看出,我国天然气的风险评价主要集中在管道风险评价方面,且缺乏系统、详细的统计资料,因此,急需建立相应的数据库,采用多种评价方法相结合,开发天然气风险评价软件和探寻有效的应急救援措施,以利于我国天然气风险管理。

Analysis on risk and evaluation methods for natural gas

In order to promote natural gas industry towards more secure future, the analysis and summary in-depth for the risk assessment of natural gas were conducted. It showed that six risk categories existed in the exploitation, transportation and usage processes, including pipeline risk, liquefied natural gas risk, gas transmission station risk, exploration and development risk, drilling risk and underground gas storage risk. The research contents of risk assessment, the reason of risk generation and the assessment methods corresponding to the six risk categories were summarized. It showed that the risk assessment of natural gas in China was mainly focused on the risk assessment of pipelire, and was lacking of systemetic and detaited statistics. Therefore, establishing the appropriate databases is urgent. Integrating multifarious assessment methods, developing software of risk assessment of natural gas and es- tablishing emergency rescue measures are beneficial to risk management.