碳中和目标下的北京城市道路移动源CO2和大气污染物协同减排效应研究

为实现2060年碳中和目标,研究北京城市道路移动源CO_2和大气污染物(CO、NO_x、PM_(2.5))的协同减排效应。本文以2016年为基准年,建立CO_2和大气污染物排放量的LEAP模型,设计三种政策情景,预测到2060年各类污染物排放量,并通过减排效应坐标系分析和减排弹性系数法研究不同措施下CO_2和大气污染物的协同减排效应。结果显示,综合政策情景的减排作用最好,且协同减排效应最显著,但在2060年无法实现碳中和目标;单一措施情景下,严格排放标准措施的协同减排效果有限,但对各污染物的减排协同性最优,推广公共交通减排协同性次之,发展新能源车辆措施具有较好的协同减排效果,但对CO_2—CO和CO_2—PM_(2.5)的减排协同度较差。对此,本文提出应加快推动交通能源结构转型,在新能源车取代燃油类机动车的同时,要不断减少天然气类车型的比例,尽可能实现"电能+新能源汽车"的零排放能源结构;还要加严机动车排放标准限值以加强CO_2和大气污染物的减排协同度;制定相应的机动车CO_2和大气污染物协同排放限值标准目标,构建CO_2与大气污染物排放协同管理体系等建议。

Study on the Synergetic Emission Reduction Effect of CO2 and Air Pollutants from the Mobile Source of Urban Roads in Beijing Under the Target of Carbon Neutralization

Based on the analysis of the special attributes of green technology innovation, the transformation of environment and driving force of enterprise green technology innovation, the driving mechanism of market orientation to green technology innovation of enterprises is given. It is found that green technological innovation of enterprises has special attributes such as urgency of progress, practicability, market orientation and dual externalities. It is necessary to use market mechanism to drive enterprise green technological innovation investment. The green technological innovation of enterprises under the market orientation is to optimize the allocation efficiency of green technological innovation elements by means of market mechanism. Among them, the supply-demand mechanism of the market is conducive to releasing the supply and demand signals of green technological innovation elements; the market competition mechanism is conducive to improving the market competitiveness of green technological innovation enterprises; and the market price mechanism is conducive to the realization of the value of green technology innovation. Finally, in combination with the practice of China''s green technology innovation, six suggestions are proposed:aiming at solving outstanding contradictions and accurately designing market regulation measures; optimizing top-level design as the starting point to achieve multi-agent synergy; strengthening intellectual property protection and formulating green industry patents strategy; promoting green consumption in a multi-pronged manner, guide enterprises to innovate green technology; improve green standards and labeling systems, and push for green technology upgrade; and establish green technology innovation development evaluation system to improve market regulation efficiency.