中国低碳发展的国际比较研究——基于历史和经济发展阶段的审视

随着近年来我国碳排放总量的增加,一些西方国家开始把碳减排责任的矛头指向中国。为了明确中国碳排放的国际地位,运用历史唯物主义观点,从经济发展阶段视角进行了国际比较研究。首先运用IEA2011年公布的碳排放数据分析了我国2009年面临的碳排放形势,继而研究了工业革命以来中国碳排放的总体贡献情况,最后从经济发展阶段视角进行了国际比较研究。认为:①尽管我国当前的碳排放总量巨大,但人均碳排放量低于世界前10名的主要碳排放国家,碳排放强度与世界主要碳排放国家相比还存在一定差距;②我国的历史累计碳排放贡献及人均碳排放均较低,发达国家和地区的累计碳排放量达到世界累计碳排放量的近3/4;③与发达国家相同经济发展阶段相比,我国的人均碳排放和碳排放强度远低于主要发达国家和地区;④世界主要发达国家和地区在快速推进工业化的经济发展阶段普遍伴随着高碳排放。鉴于此,我们认为应该辩证地看待中国的碳排放,一方面中国当前的确产生了较大的碳排放,另一方面中国的经济发展阶段决定了这种碳排放规模和水平。发达国家的经济发展轨迹和碳足迹也表明,在工业化快速推进的过程中,一定程度的高碳排放是世界经济发展的客观规律。

An International Comparison Study on Low-carbon Development in China——A New Perspective on the History and Stage of Economy Development

With the increasing emission of carbon dioxide in recent years in China,some western countries begin to press China to reduce carbon dioxide emission.In order to clarify the international status of China’s carbon dioxide emission,this paper makes an international comparison study on economic development in the world history.From a realistic point of view,it concentrates on the following three aspects:(1) China’s emission situation in carbon dioxide;(2) China’s emission contribution in carbon dioxide in human history;(3) China’s carbon dioxide emission situation in from the economic stage of development perspective on international comparison.According to the study,it makes the following conclusions:(1) China per capita carbon emission of per capita is lower than that of the world’s major carbon-emission nations,and China’s carbon emission of per capita is similar to theirs in spite of our current large carbon emission;(2) China had contributed less than the developed countries in carbon emission in history,and the developed countries and regions had contributed three quarters of carbon emission cumulatively;(3) in terms of carbon emission of per capita and carbon intensity in the same economic development stage,China emitted far less than the main developed countries and regions;(4) in the rapid industrialization and economic development process,high carbon emission is almost inevitable in the majer developed countries and regions in the world history.