重庆地票制度风险评估研究

地票制度风险评估能够有效规避、减小风险,保证地票制度安全运行。采用DSP制度风险研究技术体系识别并评价重庆地票制度风险影响因素,再采用综合评价模型对地票制度风险进行评估。结果表明:①地票制度风险因素有5个,分别为耕地保护风险、国家宏观调控的风险、房地产市场冲击风险、统筹城乡的风险和农民权益保护的风险;②地票制度风险准则层中5个风险的相对严重程度依次为农民权益保护的风险、耕地保护风险、国家宏观调控的风险、房地产市场冲击风险和统筹城乡风险,指标层中农村宅基地社会保障未充分考虑的风险、农民复垦的主体地位未得到充分体现的风险、耕地总量动态平衡的风险、地票落地区农民权益未得到充分保障的风险和国家计划指标的冲击风险这5个风险比较大;③地票制度系统风险值为0.38,系统风险较低,风险处于可控状态。

Study on Risk Assessment of Chongqing Land Tickets System

The risk assessment of land tickets system can effectively avoid and reduce risks,ensure the safe operation of the system.This paper uses the DSP system for risk research and technology system to identify and evaluate the risk of the influencing factors of land tickets system,and uses the comprehensive evaluation model to assess the risk.The results show that:①There are five risk factors for land tickets system: farmland protection risks,the risk of national macro-control,the impact of the real estate market risk,the risk of co-ordinating urban and rural areas and the risk of protecting the interests of farmers.②The severity of the five relative risks of the criteria layers are in terms of degree the risk of protecting the interests of farmers,farmland protection risks,the risk of national macro-control,the impact of the real estate market risk and the risk of co-ordinating urban and rural areas,the following five risks are greater:the risk that does not take full account of the rural homestead security in the index layer,the risk that does not fully reflect the dominant position of reclamation of farmers,the risk of dynamic balance of total arable land,the risk that does not fully guarantee farmers’rights and interests in land tickets to landing areas,and the impact risk of national planning indicators.③The risks value of tickets system is 0.38;system risk is low and the risk is in a controllable state.