入世前后中国农业贸易引致的就业“创造与替代”

我国加入世贸组织后,除了粮食安全、比较优势、竞争力等方面的影响研究外,农产品贸易开放对我国农业生产部门就业的影响一直令人关注,是具有比较优势的劳动密集型农产品出口带来更多就业创造,还是土地密集型农产品进口引致更多就业替代?本文运用1994-2009年数据,对入世前后农产品贸易开放引致的农业就业效应进行全面系统的实证分析,并对在不同情形下我国未来贸易引致的农业就业替代效应的程度和方式进行了模拟分析。研究结果表明:入世后我国农产品贸易引致的农业就业效应呈现出更明显的就业净替代变化;同时,在技术水平不变的情况下,我国未来劳动密集型农产品的实际出口增速与平抑就业替代压力的"理想增速"相距甚远,未来土地密集型净进口所产生的农业就业替代量将在较大程度上超过劳动密集型净出口创造的就业机会,我国农业就业整体"净替代"的趋势可能将长期持续。

Trade-Induced Agricultural Employment "Substitution and Creation" Effects Before and After China's WTO Accession

China has been in the WTO for almost ten years.The impacts of agricultural trade openness on the employment in China’s agricultural sector have drawn considerable attention.Apart from production,food security,and income distribution,the possible effect that agricultural trade would bring to agricultural employment opportunity is also an important perspective.Time-series data of China’s agricultural production and trade from the year 1994 to 2008 is used to estimate quantitatively the farm job creation and substitution effect on agricultural trade in China before and after the WTO accession and simulated scenarios to explore the future development of trade-induced farm job creation and substitution effect.The results show that the farm job substitution effect from agricultural imports in China has exceeded the job creation effect from agricultural exports for most of the years during 1994-2008.According to the scenario simulation,it’s also noted that the actual average annual rate of labor-intensive products net export value is much lower than the "idealized rate" which could "create" jobs to fully contain the "substitutions".It is inevitable and long-standing that job creation effect from labor-intensive agricultural exports will be at a considerably lower level than the job substitution effect from land-intensive agricultural exports in the future.The results have several important implications on agricultural production and trade.