中国2020年碳减排目标下若干关键经济指标研究

《国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》将能源消耗强度和CO2排放强度作为约束性指标。实现2020年单位GDP碳排放强度下降40-45%的自主减排目标是中国今后发展的战略性任务。"十一五"期间,中国以能源消费年均6.6%的增速支撑了国民经济年均11.2%的增长,累计节能量达到6.3亿t标煤,CO2减排量达到14.6亿t,为全球应对气候变化做出了积极贡献。但单位GDP的能耗强度和碳强度下降与温室气体排放总量的上升还将是中国当前和未来很长时期温室气体排放的主要特征。根据历史数据分析,GDP增长、经济结构、产业结构、能源结构等都会对中国的碳减排产生重要影响。GDP增速高必然呈现高能耗、高排放的特征。经济结构方面,影响能耗和碳排放的是GDP(最终需求)的组成变化,即消费、投资和净出口的变化。由于第二产业在国民经济中所占的较大比重以及重化工产业长期存在,除了继续依靠技术进步提高能源使用效率外,必须重视产业结构调整对降低碳排放强度的贡献。能源结构对节能和碳减排的影响集中体现在资源禀赋不平衡、供需分布不平衡、消费种类不平衡。文章提出实现碳减排目标,必须控制和达到以下关键指标:控制GDP增速在6-8%之间;调整出口结构,提升服务贸易比重至30%左右;提高第三产业比例至47%以上,控制高能耗工业比重在22%以下;提高非化石能源比重至15%。此外,实现碳减排目标还必须:充分认识碳减排对转方式、调结构的重要意义;切实加强对不同区域碳减排工作的分类指导;提前部署重大低碳技术和重点领域技术研发;大力倡导绿色低碳消费和生活方式等。研究表明,中国实现2020年CO2自主减排目标还需付出更大的努力。

Study on Key Macro-economic Factors and Indexes in Context of China's Goal of Carbon Intensity Reduction

In the Outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development,energy consumption intensity and carbon dioxide intensity are listed as binding targets.It is an important strategic task for China in the near future to reach the goal of reducing carbon emission intensity by 40%-45% by 2020.During the 11th Five-Year period,an average annual growth rate of 6.6% of energy consumption supported the national economy growth rate of 11.2%.Cumulative energy saving is 630 million tons of standard coal and the total emission reduction of CO2 reaches 1.46 billion tons,making a positive contribution to the global response to climate change.The decrease of energy intensity of unit GDP and carbon intensity as well as the increase of the greenhouse gas emission are the main features of China’s current greenhouse gas emission.Based on historical experiences,the growth of GDP,economic structure,industrial structure and energy structure all have great impact on China’s carbon intensity reduction.The high growth rate of GDP inevitably shows the characteristics of high energy consumption and emission.In economic structure,the composition change of GDP(final demand)—the change of consumption,investment and net export—influences energy consumption and carbon emission.Because of the large proportion of the secondary industry in national economy and the long-term existence of heavy chemical industry,we should pay attention to the contribution of the industrial reconstruction to reduce carbon emission intensity,in addition to the technological advances to promote energy efficiency.The influence of energy structure on energy-saving and carbon emission reduction reflects in the imbalance of resource endowment,supply and demand distribution as well as the consumption types.To achieve the goal of reducing the CO2 emission per unit of GDP by 40%-45% by 2020,the following indices should be reached: to control GDP growth rate between 6%-8%;to adjust export structure and increase the proportion of service trade to around 30%;to increase the proportion of tertiary industry to more than 47% and to control the proportion of the high energy consumption industry to 22% below;to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy to 15%.This paper proposes relevant measures and suggestions about achieving the goal of carbon intensity reduction,including fully understanding the important significance of carbon intensity reduction on mode transfer and structure adjustment;practically strengthening the guidance of sorting carbon intensity reduction work in different regions;deploying ahead of time the research and development of great low-carbon technology and major field technology;vigorously advocating the green low-carbon consumption and lifestyle.It should make greater effort to realize the 2020 carbon intensity reduction target.