中国水利现代化进程的评价和展望

着眼于中国现代化建设的历史全局,从安全性需求保障度、经济性需求保障度、舒适性需求保障度以及水生态环境和谐度四个维度,构建了中国水利现代化评价指标体系。通过定量评价,本文测算了中国未来5年、10年、20年和40年的水利现代化实现程度。从评价结果来看,2000年,中国水利现代化综合实现程度为30%;2010年,水利现代化综合实现程度提高到46%,表明过去十年是水利现代化的快速提升期。预计到2015年,中国水利现代化实现程度将提高到56%;到2020年,水利现代化综合实现程度将提高到70%,总体上达到中等现代化的水平;到2030年,水利现代化综合实现程度达到91%,基本实现水利现代化,水利发展水平与经济高收入水平基本相适应。展望2030年以后,中国水利发展将进入水生态环境全面修复和保护的时期;至2050年,中国将实现人水和谐、山川秀美,全面建成绿色现代化。由于国家对水利工作的高度重视,可以预见,中国未来十几年的水利现代化进程会大大加快,有可能在2030年或更早时间基本实现水利现代化。

Evaluation and Prospect of China' s Water Conservancy Modernization Proces

Within the context of China’s overall modernization,we construct an index system to evaluate the modernization process of China’s water conservancy from four aspects including safety concerns,economic supports,comfort satisfactions and water ecology & environment protections.Through quantitative evaluation,we estimate the degree of water conservancy modernization achievable in the next five,ten,twenty and forty years.The results show that the degree of water conservancy modernization is 30% in 2000 and 46% in 2010,which indicates the fast development of water conservancy during the past decade.Also we expect that the degree of modernization will reach 56% by 2015,70% by 2020 and eventually 91% by 2030.It means that in 2030 the water conservancy modernization will be basically realized and water development will accommodate to the high economic development level.In post-2030 era,China will step onto the stage of comprehensive protection and restoration of its water ecological system.And by 2050,China will ultimately achieve the "Green Modernization" with harmonious relation between people and water.Since the state attaches great importance to water conservancy development,we predict that the pace of China’s water conservancy modernization will speed up in the next decade,and the goal of water conservancy modernization will essentially be realized by 2030 or earlier.