气候变暖等因素对山东省种植业产出的影响

通过建立引入气候因素的种植业生产函数模型,利用1990-2009年山东省40个县市种植业生产及气象面板数据,运用产出增长分解法,实证分析气候因素和非气候因素对山东省种植业产出的影响并对产出增长的各要素贡献进行分解。结果表明:气候变暖对山东省种植业带来明显的负面影响。1990-2009年间气候因素对山东省40个县市的总体产出增长的影响为-11.03%,在其他条件不变的情况下,平均温度每升高1℃,总体种植业总产值减少2.2%,总体产值增长下降1.48%;温度升高对鲁西北地区、鲁南地区种植业产出的影响最为明显;同时,降水对种植业产出影响显著,降水因素使得山东省种植业产出增长减少16.86%;物质投入中化肥和农药对种植业产出增长贡献最大,但农业劳动力减少,特别是种植业劳动力的减少,开始显著地影响种植业产出,使得种植业产出增长减少5.90%;技术进步的影响作用在下降。

Impacts of Climate Warming on the Growth of Plant Farming Output

Based on the panel data of meteorology and plant farming from 1990 to 2009 in 40 counties of Shandong Province,by using the method of output growth decomposition,this paper established production functions of plant farming and analyzed the impacts of climate and non-climate factors on the output of that in Shandong Province as well as the contribution of each variable to the growth of plant farming output.The result indicated that the influences of climate factors on the growth of the total output in 40 counties of Shandong Province is-11.03% from 1990 to 2009.Keeping the other conditions unchanged,with the average temperature rising up 1℃,the total output of plant farming correspondingly reduced by 2.2%,while the growth of the total output reduced by 1.48%.Increasing temperature was the most obvious contributor which offected the plant farming output in the northwest and Lunan region of Shandong Province.Precipitation had significant impacts on the output of plant farming by 16.86%.Fertilizers and pesticides were the top two contributors to the growth of plantfarming output.The decrease of agricultural labor forces,especially the labor forces of plant farming,started to have obvious impacts on the output of plant farming,with the growth of output of plant farming reduced by 5.90%.The impact of technical progress was in decline.Climate warming brought negative effects on planting farming in Shandong Province.The present study dissected various elements via the production functions,especially the contribution of climate warming to planting farming,which will be useful for further food security in Shandong Province.