基于ARIO模型的汶川地震灾后恢复重建期模拟

基于区域投入产出模型(ARIO),以一个月为时间步长,模拟了汶川地震后四川省各部门产出和需求随重建进程的变化过程。模拟结果表明:汶川地震的完全恢复重建大致需要近9年的时间,灾后36个月时,四川省的当地总产出能力将超过灾前水平。在重建模拟的基础上,评估了灾后实施不同风险管理策略的潜在效益,若最大生产能力在灾后3个月内能够加速达到灾前的150%,则与无加速重建相比,恢复重建期至少可以缩短3年半,证明了灾后加大人力和物力投入对于缩短恢复重建期的作用。提出的重建期模拟方法可以为缩短重建期、合理分配抗灾救灾资源的灾害管理提供技术支撑。

Simulation of post-disaster recovery and reconstruction period of Wenchuan earthquake based on adaptive regional input-output model

Based on adaptive regional input-output(ARIO) model,and taking 1 month as calculating step,this study simulates the reconstruction process after the Wenchuan earthquake.Results show that the complete reconstruction period requires about 9 years,and the total production recovery requires 36 months.Based on the simulation of reconstruction,this paper also evaluated the potential profit for different risk management strategies,e.g.,if post-earthquake production capacity could be speeded up to 150% of the pre-earthquake in 3 months,the reconstruction period could be shortened for 3 years and a half.This result shows the importance of manpower and materials investment to the shortening of reconstruction period.The ARIO model is helpful in managing post-earthquake reconstruction,shortening recovery and reconstruction period and reasonably distributing disaster relief resources.