中国服务业CO2排放的时空特征与EKC检验

采用IPCC温室气体排放清单中CO₂排放因子与估算方法,核算了1995—2012年中国30个省区(不含港澳台地区和西藏自治区数据,全文同)服务业的CO₂排放量,并对30个省区服务业人均CO₂排放量的时空特征进行分析；利用基于面板数据的EKC模型检验中国及其三大经济带服务业增长与CO₂排放之间的关系. 结果表明:在考察期内,中国服务业人均CO₂排放量从0.16 t升至0.77 t,服务业人均增加值从1 621.04元增至9 991.95元；服务业人均CO₂排放量排在前列的省区大都位于东部地区；东部和中部地区人均CO₂排放量与服务业人均增加值之间呈线性正相关,人均服务业增加值每增加1个单位,人均CO₂排放量将分别增加1.02和1.16个单位；西部地区人均CO₂排放量与服务业人均增加值之间呈单调递增关系. 在此基础上,提出差别化的碳减排对策:①东部地区应通过技术改进和优化产业结构、能源消费结构来降低CO₂排放,并成为中国服务业节能减排的“领头羊”；②中、西部地区应在保持服务业经济适当增速的前提下,将提高能源利用效率和降低能源强度作为减排重点. 

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and EKC Testing of CO2 Emissions from China's Service Industry

Abstract:CO₂ emissions from China''s service sector were calculated for 1995-2012 using the carbon emissions coefficients and methodology introduced by the IPCC in the Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GNGGI). A spatiotemporal distribution map of CO₂ emissions from China''s service industry was edited by ArcGIS 9.3 to analyze its spatiotemporal pattern evolution in 30 provinces. In addition, the EKC (environment Kuznets curve) model was adopted to test the relationship between service industry growth and its CO₂ emissions in the eastern, central and western parts of China. The results showed that:1) during this period, the per capita CO₂ emissions of China''s service industry increased from 0.16 t to 0.77 t, while the per capital added value of China''s service industry increased from 1621.04 yuan to 9991.95 yuan. 2) Most provinces in the eastern region ranked in the top position for per capita CO₂ emissions of service industry. 3) Linear positive correlation between per capita carbon emissions and the per capita added value in the service industry existed in the eastern and central parts of China; when the former increased by a unit, the latter increased by 1.02 and 1.16, respectively. 4) Per capita carbon emissions increased progressively with the per capita added value of the service sector in the western region. Diverse strategies about carbon emission reduction were generated in different regions. The eastern region showed its leadership by promoting carbon emission reduction technologies, optimizing the industrial structure and adjusting energy consumption structure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions intensity. As for the central and western regions, improving efficiency of energy utilization and lowering carbon dioxide emissions intensity was the priority on the premise of maintaining the steady economic growth of the service industry.