长江中游城市群太阳辐射长期变化特征及其与气象要素的关系研究

基于长江中游5个气象辐射站点1961年以来的每日太阳辐射成分及其他气象观测数据,应用线性回归、相关分析、Pettitt突变检验等方法,探讨了近半世纪以来长江中游城市群太阳辐射的变化特征,指明地面接收太阳辐射的突变年份,并分析了太阳辐射与相关气象要素的关系。结果表明:近53年来长江中游地面接收太阳总辐射呈现先下降("变暗")、后上升("变亮")的趋势,该区域的辐射变化与全球范围内的"变暗"及"变亮"的变化趋势是一致的。日照时数与太阳辐射呈现较为显著的正相关性,相关系数r为0.63;而降水量则与太阳辐射呈现负相关性,相关系数r为–0.41。太阳辐射的这种突变变化也直接导致了气温的变化,在"变暗"阶段,太阳辐射与最高气温、气温日较差呈现出显著的正相关性,相关系数分别达到0.61和0.82,但其与最低气温、平均气温的相关性则不显著;在"变亮"阶段,太阳辐射与最高气温、气温日较差、平均气温呈现出正相关性,相关系数分别为0.56、0.62以及0.46,但其与最低气温的相关性则不显著。

LONG-TERM VARIATION OF SOLAR RADIATION AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS IN THE MIDDLE REACHES OF YANGTZE RIVER

Based on daily solar radiation components and other meteorological observation data in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River since 1961,using linear regression,correlation analysis and Pettitt mutation test method,variation characteristics of solar radiation were investigated and mutation of solar radiation were detected and relationship between solar radiation and meteorological factors were analyzed.The results showed solar radiation showed a decreasing trend ("dark") during 1961-1989 and an increasing trend ("light") during 1990-2013.This is consistent with trend of global scale.Sunshine hours and solar radiation showed a significant positive correlation with a correlation coefficient r of 0.63;while precipitation was negatively correlated with solar radiation (r=-0.41).The solar radiation mutation change is a direct cause of the changes in temperature.In the "dark" stage,the solar radiation had significant positive correlations with the highest temperature (r=0.61) and diurnal temperature (r=0.82),while the correlation between solar radiation and minimum temperature AND average temperature was not significant.In the "light" stage,the solar radiation had positive correlation with the highest temperature (r=0.56),diumal temperature (r=0.62),and the average temperature(r=0.46),while its correlation between solar radiation and lowest temperature was not significant.