中国省域能源强度趋同俱乐部存在性及影响因素分析

中国疆域广大,各地的资源禀赋、能源消耗状况以及经济增长方式存在有着很大的差异,这也导致各地区之间的能源强度水平有着显著的区别。中国各地区之间这种差异很大的能源强度水平是否存在类似经济增长趋同的性质,是否也会呈现出一定的俱乐部趋同现象,这对于探索区域能源差异化政策具有重要意义。以中国30个省市区2000~2014年与能源强度水平有关的数据作为分析的基础,首先从理论上阐述了中国能源强度水平的空间相关性,然后构建实证模型,对2000~2014年中国整体能源强度以及分省域能源强度趋同俱乐部的存在性展开实证研究与检验;对第二产业产值(SEN)、固定资产投资(TZ)、RD经费支出(RD)、外商直接投资(FDI)等对各省域能源强度趋同的作用效果做出预估。结果表明我国各省市间能源强度的差距逐步减小,且存在空间上的省域能源强度趋同俱乐部现象;各经济变量对各区域能源强度作用效果各不相同;所以,在制定与能源相关的政策时,要考虑不同地域的客观差别,有针对性实施差异化能源政策。

ANALYSIS ON THE EXISTENCE AND FACTORS OF CHINA'S PROVINCIAL ENERGY INTENSITY CONVERGENCE CLUB

There is a great difference between resource endowment,energy consumption and economic growth form in China,which makes energy intensity significantly differ between regions.It is important to reveal whether the presence of energy intensity level of each regional economic growth in China is similar to the convergence of nature,whether a certain club convergence phenomenon for the implementation of energy policy differentiation exists.In this paper,the specific data of energy intensity level in 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2014 were taken as the starting point.First,the spatial correlation of energy intensity level in China was explained theoretically.Then we constructed the correlation model to carry on the empirical research and the examination to the existence of China's comprehensive and sub-provincial energy intensity convergence clubs from 2000 to 2014.At the same time,the effects of the secondary industry output value (SEN),fixed asset investment (TZ),R&D expenditure (R&D) and foreign direct investment (FDI) on energy intensity convergence were forecasted.The results showed that the energy intensity gap between provinces and cities in China was gradually reduced,and there was a spatial phenomenon of provincial energy intensity convergence of the club.It also showed that the effect of economic variables on energy intensity in different regions was different.Therefore,in the development of energy related policies,we must consider the objective differences in different regions,which targeted the implementation of differentiated energy policy.