南京市2000~2014年城市建设用地变化及驱动因子研究

基于土地利用模型测度2000~2014年南京市城市建设用地的动态变化，再运用典型相关分析、主成分分析及逐步回归分析组合的偏最小二乘回归法对南京市城市建设用地的驱动因子进行分析。结果表明：（1）2000~2014年南京市城市建设用地面积总体上呈上升趋势，年均增长率为11.73%；（2）南京市用地结构信息熵呈波动下降趋势，城市建设用地系统结构性增强，但是用地扩展的综合效益趋降；（3）人口增长、道路扩展、投资水平提高及文化产业发展等能够较好的解释南京市城市建设用地的增长，这4类因子对城市建设用地变化具有正向作用；（4）逐步线性回归结果表明，园林绿地面积的增加相对其他因子对南京市建设用地规模增长的作用最大，其次是道路长度和公路里程。

THE ANALYSIS ON URBAN COSTRUCTION LAND CHANGE AND DRIVING FORCES IN NANJING FROM 2000 TO 2014

In this study,analysis on urban construction land changes in Nanjing from 2000 to 2014 was carried out based on the measurement model.The driving factors underlying the changes were also analyzed by the method of partial least squares regression,combination of canonical correlation analysis,principal component analysis,and stepwise regression analysis.The results showed that:(1) The urban construction land of Nanjing is on the rise in general,with an average annual increase rate of 11.73％;(2) The structure information entropy of urban construction land showed a downward trend,with an enhanced system structure of construction land;(3) The population growth,expanding investment,improved level of road and the development of culture industry are the main factors driving urban construction land change in Nanjing,with comprehensive positive effects;(4) Stepwise linear regression results showed that the increase of the area of garden green land is relative to other factors,which is the most important to the scale of construction land in Nanjing City,and the second is the length of the road,then is the length of highway.