竹子造林CCER项目碳汇价值动态评估及敏感性分析

基于竹子造林碳汇项目方法学和改进的项目减排量经济价值评价模型,以湖北省通山县竹子造林项目为例,对竹子造林项目减排量及经济价值进行了动态定量评估,并对不同情景下项目减排量经济价值的变化进行了敏感性分析。结果表明:在当前条件下,单位面积平均和20年累计减排量为12.6 t CO_2e/hm~2和251.2 t CO_2e/hm~2,项目面积为6 556 t CO_2e和131 125t CO_2e,但其主要集中在项目运行期前十年的地上和地下生物质碳库,而后十年的竹制品碳库相对较少;项目面积年均和累计碳汇价值量为9.62万元和192.41万元,中国自愿减排交易市场发育和健康运行对竹子造林项目碳汇价值影响显著;竹林经营技术条件,主要竹制品加工联合利用效率及联合使用寿命变化,对竹子造林项目年均和累计碳汇价值均有正向影响,但后两者的影响程度较小。未来应尽快构建囊括抵消机制的全国统一碳市场;重视毛竹碳汇造林与管护技术的应用、示范与推广;并鼓励竹子加工企业进行技术创新,生产和销售耐用竹制品。

STUDY ON THE DYNAMIC VALUE OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION OF BAMBOO FORESTATION PROJECT IN CCER MARKET AND ITS SENSITIVITY

The certified emission-reducing and its value of bamboo forestation project in TongShan county HuBei province were evaluated by using the methodology of bamboo reforestation carbon sink and a improved model of net present value(NPV);and the sensitivity of the dynamic value were also discussed under different scenarios.Results showed that:under the current conditions,the annual average and 20 years cumulative amount of carbon sequestration per hectare were 12.6 tCO2e/hm2 and 251.2 tCO2e/hm2,while the entire project were 6 556 tCO2e and 131 125 tCO2e respectively;however,the carbon sequestration is mainly concentrated in aboveground and underground biomass carbon stocks during the first to tenth year of the project operation period;while the amount of harvested wood products (HWP) carbon stocks during the eleventh to twentieth years of the project operation period is relatively less;the annual average and the cumulative value of the project is 96 200 yuan and 1.92 million yuan;the annual average and cumulative carbon value of the project was significantly positively related to carbon price in CCER market;the change of management technical conditions of moso bamboo forest and joint processing and utilization efficiency or the service life of main bamboo products,have positive influence on the annual average and cumulative carbon value,but the influence is negligible small.The study suggested that a unified national carbon market included CCER should be to build as soon as possible in the future.On the other hand,the research and demonstration on afforestation technology technique for increasing carbon sink should be further strengthened.At the same time,technical innovation and production and sales of durable bamboo products should also be encouraged.