| 路基沉降的非等间隔时变离散灰色预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 张勇,胡斌,李博,王新刚.路基沉降的非等间隔时变离散灰色预测模型[J].安全与环境工程,2011,18(4):31-32,42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张勇 胡斌 李博 王新刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学岩土钻掘与防护教育部工程研究中心,武汉430074;中国地质大学教育部长江三峡库区地质灾害研究中心,武汉430074;中国地质大学工程学院,武汉430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50609026); 武汉市青年科技晨光计划项目(2007055004) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文分析了灰色GM(1,1)模型的缺陷,并以离散GM(1,1)模型为基础建立了路基沉降的非等间隔时变离散灰色预测模型,该模型参数以最小二乘法估计,且以遗传算法优化初始值,通过工程实例与不同预测模型进行对比分析,结果表明非等间隔时变灰色预测模型的精度明显高于其他模型,且最能反映原始路基沉降数据的发展规律.
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| 关 键 词： | 路基沉降 离散 时变 非等间隔 灰色预测模型 |
Non-equal Interval Time-varying Discrete Grey Model of Road Foundation Subsidence |
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| ZHANG Yong,HU Bin,LI Bo,WANG Xin-gang.Non-equal Interval Time-varying Discrete Grey Model of Road Foundation Subsidence[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2011,18(4):31-32,42. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yong HU Bin LI Bo WANG Xin-gang |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Yong1,2,3,HU Bin1,LI Bo1,WANG Xin-gang1,3(1.Engineering Research Center of Rock-soil Drilling & Excavation and Protection,Ministry ofEducation,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China,2.Yangtze River Three Gorges GeologicalDisaster Research Center,Ministry of Education,3.Faculty of Engineering,China) |
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| Abstract: | To analyze the limitations of grey model GM(1,1),the non-equal interval time-varying discrete grey model of building subsidence is built based on discrete GM(1,1) model.It can display the time-varying and non-equal interval characteristics of the original data.The parameters of the model are estimated by using least squares technique,and the initial value is optimized by using genetic algorithm.Finally,the forecasting precision of different models is compared based on examples.The result shows that the non-... |
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| Keywords: | road foundation subsidence discrete time-varying non-equal interval grey model |
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