无居民海岛资源环境承载力监测与预警评价试点研究——以三沙湾为例

无居民海岛资源环境承载力监测评价和预警对于制定无居民海岛保护与利用规划，协调无居民海岛开发利用与保护的关系具有重要意义。本文参考国家海洋局提出的海洋资源环境承载力监测预警技术方法指南（2015），结合三沙湾无居民海岛开发利用现状，构建了三沙湾无居民海岛资源环境承载能力监测与预警的评价指标体系并进行了评价分析。结果表明三沙湾无居民海岛岸线资源处于"可载"状态，但海岛整体开发利用规模较高，岛陆资源处于"超载"状态，生态环境为"基本稳定"。三沙湾无居民海岛资源环境承载力在10 a中由可载转变为超载，尤其是两个无居民海岛随着开发过程发生灭失，表明无居民海岛开发强度确实较大，今后应强化资源环境承载力对于开发利用活动的约束作用。

Research on resource-environmental carrying capacity monitoring and pre-alert assessment of uninhabited islands——take San-sha bay as an example

Resource-environmental carrying capacity monitoring and pre-alert assessment of uninhabited islands showed its significance in planning and coordinating relationships between protection and utilization of uninhabited islands.In this study, taking "Guidance of marine resource-environmental carrying capacity monitoring and pre-alert assessment" released by China SOA as a reference, evaluation index system of resource-environmental carrying capacity monitoring and pre-alert assessment of uninhabited islands was established according to utilization status of uninhabited islands in San-sha bay.Assessment results showed that:as for uninhabited islands in San-sha bay, coastline resource revealed the state of "loadable", land resource revealed the state of "overloaded", island environment remained "basically stable".In the past 10 years, resource-environmental carrying capacity of uninhabited islands in San-sha bay had shifted from loadable to overloaded, and two uninhabited islands had become extinction, reflecting great utilization intensity to these uninhabited islands.Thus, restrictions by resource-environmental carrying capacity should be intensified towards utilization activities of uninhabited island in future.