Simplified Models of U.S. Acid Rain Control Costs

Simplified algorithms are presented for estimating the cost of controlling sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions from existing coal-fired power plants on a state-by-state basis. Results are obtained using the detailed Utility Control Strategy Model (UCSM) to calculate the Impacts of emission reductions ranging from approximately 30 percent to 90 percent of projected 1995 emissions for 18 different scenarios and 36 states. Scenarios include the use of two dry SO₂ removal technologies (lime spray dryers and LIMB) as potential options for power plant retrofit, in addition to currently available emission control options including coal switching, coal cleaning and wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD). Technical assumptions relating to FGD system performance and the upgrading of existing cold-side electrostatic precipitators (ESP) for reduced sulfur levels are also analyzed, along with the effects of interest rates, coal prices, coal choice restrictions, plant lifetime, and plant operating levels. Results are summarized in the form of a 3-term polynomial equation for each state, giving total annualized SO₂ control cost as a function of the total SO₂ emissions reduction for each scenario. Excellent statistical fits to UCSM results are obtained for these generalized equations.