基于JSA-BN的水上提管维修作业风险分析

为保障海底油气管道维修作业安全，提出1种基于JSA-BN的作业风险分析方法。采用JSA方法辨识分析水上提管维修作业过程中潜在的风险因素，得出不同作业步骤的风险等级；建立水上提管维修作业贝叶斯网络模型，计算出各作业环节的成功概率；依托贝叶斯网络的逆向推理及敏感性分析能力，实现水上提管维修作业风险薄弱点的定量预测和评估。研究结果表明:提出的基于JSA-BN的作业风险分析方法可应用于近岸海底管道应急维修作业风险分析；在整个水上提管维修作业活动中，提管作业和切割破损管道作业为关键作业环节，提升过程中碰撞、掉落事件为薄弱风险因素。

Risk analysis on operation of above water lifting pipeline maintenance based on JSA-BN

In order to ensure the safety of maintenance operation for the subsea oil and gas pipeline, an analysis method of operation risk based on JSA-BN was put forward. The potential risk factors in the operation process of above water lifting pipeline maintenance were identified and analyzed by using the job safety analysis (JSA) method, and the risk grades of different operation steps were obtained. A Bayesian network (BN) model on the operation of above water lifting pipeline maintenance was established, and the success probability of each operation link was calculated. The quantitative prediction and assessment of weak points in the operation risk of above water lifting pipeline maintenance were achieved relying on the reverse reasoning and sensitivity analysis capabilities of BN. The results showed that in the whole operation activity of above water lifting pipeline maintenance, the operation of lifting pipeline and the operation of cutting damaged pipeline were the key operation links, and the events of collision and falling during the lifting process were the weak risk factors.