基于FERC模型的油品流淌火灾定量风险评估方法研究

为了评价油品储运过程中的流淌火灾风险，提出1种基于FERC模型的油品流淌火灾定量风险评估方法。以某汽油管道为例，分析大孔泄漏、中孔泄漏、小孔泄漏３种模式下流淌火各参数的动态变化过程，计算管道周边不同位置处的个人风险值。研究结果表明:流淌火燃烧面积的最大值随泄漏速率的增加而增大，对于给定的算例条件，大孔泄漏情景下的最大燃烧半径较小孔泄漏增大了18.4倍；相较小孔泄漏，大孔泄漏下安全距离增大了6.7倍；在距离泄漏点100 m的位置，小孔泄漏、中孔泄漏和大孔泄漏条件下的辐射热流密度值分别为0.13，1.34，8.02 kW/m2；距离泄漏点34 m处时，大孔泄漏已经占总个人风险的99%；在开展风险评价时，应着重分析大孔泄漏的情景。

Study on quantitative risk assessment method for spill fire of oil based on FERC model

In order to evaluate the risk of spill fire during the storage and transportation processes of oil, a quantitative risk assessment method for the spill fire of oil based on FERC model was proposed. Taking certain gasoline pipeline as an example, the dynamic change processes of each factor of spill fire under three modes including large hole leakage, medium hole leakage and small hole leakage were analyzed, and the values of individual risk at different positions around the pipeline were calculated. The results showed that the maximum burning area of spill fire increased with the increase of leakage rate, and the maximum burning radius under the scenario of large hole leakage increased by 18.4 times than that of small hole leakage. The flame height under the small hole leakage was steady at 8.16 m, while the flame height under the large and medium hole leakage was steady at 15.4 m. Compared with the small hole leakage, the safety distance under the large hole leakage increased by 6.7 times. The radiation heat flux under the small hole leakage, medium hole leakage and large hole leakage was 0.13, 1.34 and 8.02 kW/m2 respectively at the position with 100 m distance away from the leakage point. The large hole leakage occupied 99% of total individual risk at the position with 34 m distance away from the leakage point. Therefore, the scenario of large hole leakage should be analyzed with emphasis when carrying out the risk assessment.