基于区间概率优势决策模型的滑坡治理方案优选研究

滑坡灾害治理初步设计阶段的方案优选和科学处置，对于避免或减少生命财产损失具有重要的科学和工程意义。针对滑坡治理决策指标信息属性的复杂性、区间性与不确定性等特征，首先借鉴博弈决策论的Minimax算法优化思路，结合概率优势关系及粗糙集相关理论，提出滑坡灾害治理方案优选的区间概率优势关系决策模型，该模型考虑治理方案与理想方案之间的优势度及其属性值的概率测度，与方案属性值大小之间存在着等价关系；然后利用属性值优势关系求得权重量化值，同时基于离差最大化算法和推论2对治理方案进行排序和反演；最后通过工程案例仿真模拟进行验证。研究结果表明:优选方案可为滑坡工程项目治理提供借鉴和参考。

Research on optimization of landslide control scheme based on interval probability dominance decision making model

The scheme optimization and scientific disposal of landslide disaster control in the preliminary design stage is of important scientific and engineering significance to avoid or reduce the loss of life and property.Aiming at the characteristics of information attribute for decision making indexes of landslide control such as complexity,interval and uncertainty,firstly,referring to the optimization ideas of Minimax algorithm in game decision theory,combined with the probability dominance relation and the relevant theory of rough set,a model of interval probability dominance relation decision making for the optimization of landslide control scheme was proposed.This model considered the dominance degree between the control schemes and ideal scheme and the probability measurement of their attribute values,and there existed an equivalence relation with the magnitude of scheme attribute value.Then the quantized values of weights were calculated by using the attribute value dominance relation,at the same time,the sorting and inversion of control schemes were carried out based on the deviation maximization algorithm and inference 2.Finally,the verification was conducted through the engineering case simulation.The results showed that the optimization scheme could provide reference for the landslide engineering project control.