城市轨道交通车站应急疏散方案决策研究

城市轨道交通应急疏散方案决策是1个多准则决策问题，传统方法难以将决策者的偏好与风险倾向纳入考虑，因此引入累积前景理论与集对分析，得到1种结合累积前景理论与集对分析的决策方法。该方法考虑决策者面对风险时的态度，计算出方案的累积前景值；引入集对分析，通过时间权重与准则权重将前景值与集对势联系起来，计算出方案综合集对势，并利用其大小对备选方案进行排序；最后通过实例计算以及对权重的扰动分析，验证了方法有效性。

Research on decision making of emergency evacuation scheme for urban rail transit station

The decision making of emergency evacuation scheme for the urban rail transit is a multi criteria decision making problem, and it is difficult for the traditional methods to take into account the preferences and risk propensity of decision makers. Therefore, a decision making method combined the cumulative prospect theory and set pair analysis was put forward by introducing into the cumulative prospect theory and set pair analysis. This method considered the attitude of decision makers when facing risks, and calculated the cumulative prospective value of the scheme. The prospective value was connected with the set pair potential through the time weight and criterion weight by introducing into the set pair analysis, then the comprehensive set pair potential of the scheme was calculated, and its amount was used to sort the alternative schemes. Finally, the effectiveness of the method was verified by the example calculation and the perturbation analysis of weights.