减灾事业的发展和综合减灾

中国减灾事业的发展史可分3个阶段:第一阶段是新中国成立以前的几千年,减灾活动以赈灾为主,帝王“祭天求恕”,“防灾吏制”,安抚于民。清末民初1800至1949年间计发生巨灾25起,死亡4993万余人,总灾亡则近亿,年均灾亡60万人以上,这段惨痛的灾况记下了十分难得的灾情史,泣血于残野。新中国成立后,在“为人民服务”的思想指导下,为减轻灾害损失,逐步建立了气象、水利、农林、地震、海洋、地质等专业的灾害科技与减灾工程,政府并组织社会兼事抗灾、救灾、应急减灾,国家减灾实力快速增长,已取得突出减灾实效,这个阶段比第一阶段灾亡人数下降了90%以上,但年均灾亡人口仍有1.2万人左右。该阶段的工作特点是以单灾种纵向体系为主,不同灾类的监测、预报水平尚高低不一,这与成灾机理的难易程度和工作条件的强弱有关。21世纪初,随全球增温之势锐升,多类极端灾变遍及各洲,促使许多国家发动全社会人众共同探求“综合减灾”之路;我国政府已迅即开展全社会应急减灾行动,开启了“综合减灾”之先声,这是减灾事业步入第三阶段的先导。综合减灾应该是全社会相关部门和民众的统一行动。目前尚有3个问题需要弄清楚,一是多种自然灾害之间成灾机理相关性的研究,其对象是灾害群与灾害链;二是全社会减灾要素综合运作预案的优选;三是如何核算减灾投入与社会可持续发展之正、负效应关系。

Development of cause of disaster reduction and integrated reduction of disasters

The development history of the cause of disaster reduction in China can be divided into three stages.The first stage covers the times of several thousands years before 1949.During these long ages,efforts of disaster reduction were merely relief activities,characterized by imploration by emperors to Heaven for pardon,official systems for disaster prevention,and pacifying victims.From 1800 to 1949,25 giant disasters occurred which killed 49.93 million people.It is estimated that the total number of death caused by hazards is close to 100 millions,with more than 600 000 death per year on average.After the new China was founded in 1949,the government has attached great importance to the disaster deduction.A series of special institutions for hazard mitigation have been established,involving meteorology,water conservancy,agriculture,forest,seismology,oceanography,and geology.Under the guidance of the government,various social organizations and units have participated in hazard relief and emergent support activities.The capability of the country to reduce natural disasters has been greatly enhanced,reaching prominent achievements.The death number by disasters has dropped by 10 times with respect to the old ages before 1949,though about 120,000 people died in natural catastrophes per year on average.During this historical stage,efforts to mitigate hazards were made in independent manners.The levels of monitoring and prediction to various kinds of hazards differ,which are associated with mechanisms of hazard generation and specific working conditions.When it enters into 21st century,with the increasing trend of global temperature rise,many sorts of extreme disasters occurred in all continents,calling for strategy for integrated reduction of disasters in the world.The Chinese government has made an active response to such a trend,and it shows that the cause of disaster reduction enters into the third historical stage.In this new situation there are three issues remaining to be emphasized.The first is correlation between generation mechanisms of various natural disasters.The second is the preferred schemes of disaster reduction on a scale of the whole society.And the third is how to account the positive and negative impacts of disaster reduction upon the sustainable development of the society.