基于情景分析的钢铁工业物质流与价值流协调性研究

本文基于情景分析理论和方法,建立了钢铁工业物质流与价值流协调度模型,对未来一段时期钢铁工业的协调发展状况进行研究.在维持现有发展模式的基准情景下,我国钢铁工业协调发展度将持续下降,2020年将下降到0.73.在环境恶化和经济效益相对脱钩的情景下,直到2020年我国钢铁工业协调发展度将维持在0.85的水平.而在经济与环境出现绝对脱钩的情景下,我国钢铁工业协调发展度将持续上升,2020年将达到0.95的高水平.因此,近期我国钢铁工业应遵循“基准相对脱钩绝对脱钩”的发展路径,降低总物质投入和污染物排放总量,提升经济产出效益,可持续发展才有可能实现.

Study on Coordination between Material Flow and Value Flow in Iron and Steel Industry Based on Scenario Analysis

Based on the theory and method of scenario analysis, a coordination degree model between material flow and value flow in iron and steel industry is established to study the coordinated development of iron and steel industry in the future. In the baseline scenario of maintaining the existing development mode, the coordinated development degree of iron and steel industry in China will continue to fall to 0. 73 in 2020. In relative decoupling scenario between environmental degradation and economic benefit, the coordinated development degree of iron and steel industry in China will remain at the levels of 0. 85 until 2020. In absolute decoupling scenario between economy and environment, the coordinated development degree of iron and steel industry in China will rise to 0. 95 in 2020. Therefore, recently the industry should follow the path of ＂benchmark - relative decoupling - absolute decoupling＂, and reduce the total material input and pollutant emissions, improve economic output, then sustainable development may be realized.