基于层次分析方法的城市火灾风险评估研究

城市区域消防安全评估是科学有效地进行城市消防规划、部署和消防法规的制定的重要依据,对于城市建设和社会经济的协调发展具有保证和促进作用。根据《中华人民共和国消防法》及《机关、团体、企业、事业单位消防安全管理规定(61号令)》对消防管理对象的界定标准,提出分类方法,确定了城市区域消防安全体系的组成要素,采用层次分析法确定了各要素的权重,应用多层次多目标系统模糊优选理论,建立了城市区域消防安全评价模型,对城市区域消防安全评估进行了方法研究和具体计算,并应用所设计的模型对北京市宣武区的区域消防安全状况进行了分析评估。计算结果证明了方法的有效性。

City Fire-safety Evaluation with The Method of Analytic Hierarchy Process

City Fire-safety Evaluation is the basis of scientific fire programming and arranging. Formulation of the rules is of great importance. According to the definition to the target of fire management in "The Fire-fighting Law" and "The Commands of No.61", we first proposed the classification method, determined the components in the city zone fire-safety system, and as well the weight of each criterion by Analytic Hierarchy Process method. Secondly, we studied the model of city zone fire-safety assessment through the theory of fuzzy mathematics, and made some research and calculation on city zone fire-safety evaluation. Finally, we evaluated the condition of zone fire-safety in Xuan Wu Area in Beijing according to the model we have designed. The results showed the effectiveness of the methods we proposed and the calculations we conducted.