| 基于混合效应模型的京津冀地区PM2.5日浓度估算 |
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| 引用本文： | 景悦,孙艳玲,徐昊,陈莉,张辉,高爽,付宏臣,毛健.基于混合效应模型的京津冀地区PM2.5日浓度估算[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(8):2890-2897. |
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| 作者姓名： | 景悦 孙艳玲 徐昊 陈莉 张辉 高爽 付宏臣 毛健 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387;
2. 宁夏大学经济管理学院, 宁夏 银川 750021 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划青年项目（2016YFC0201700）；天津市科技计划项目（16YFXTSF00330）；天津市应用基础与前沿技术研究计划青年基金项目（16JCQNJC08600） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2016年182d的MODIS 3km AOD数据与地面监测数据，评估了混合效应模型不同参数组合的模拟性能，得出模型在解释AOD-PM2.5关系时，对时间序列变异的解释能力要比空间差异更佳.在此基础上，利用混合效应模型建立京津冀地区每日的AOD-PM2.5关系，模型拟合R2为0.92，交叉验证调整R2为0.85，均方根误差（RMSE）为12.30 μg/m3，平均绝对误差（MAE）为9.73 μg/m3，说明模型拟合精度较高.基于此模型估算的2016年京津冀地区年均PM2.5浓度为42.98 μg/m3，暖季（4月1日~10月31日）为43.35 μg/m3，冷季（11月1日~3月31日）为38.52 μg/m3，与同时期的地面监测数据差值分别为0.59，0.7，5.29 μg/m3.空间上，京津冀地区的PM2.5浓度呈现南高北低的特征，有一条明显的西南-东北走向的高值区.研究结果表明，基于每日混合效应模型可以准确评估京津冀地区的地面PM2.5浓度，且模型估算的PM2.5浓度分布状况为区域大气污染防治提供了基础的数据支撑.
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| 关 键 词： | MODIS AOD PM2.5 混合效应模型 京津冀地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-01-03 |
Daily estimation of PM2.5 concentrations based on mixed effects model in Beijing-Tianjin-Heibei region |
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| JING Yue,SUN Yan-ling,XU Hao,CHEN Li,ZHANG Hui,GAO Shuang,FU Hong-chen,MAO Jian.Daily estimation of PM2.5 concentrations based on mixed effects model in Beijing-Tianjin-Heibei region[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(8):2890-2897. |
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| Authors: | JING Yue SUN Yan-ling XU Hao CHEN Li ZHANG Hui GAO Shuang FU Hong-chen MAO Jian |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Geography and Environment Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China;
2. College of Economics and Management, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China |
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| Abstract: | The predictive performance of mixed effects model with different combinations of parameters was evaluated using the data of 182-day MODIS 3km AOD and ground monitoring concentration of PM2.5 in 2016 year. The explanation capacity was better for temporal variations when explaining the relationship between AOD and PM2.5 than for the spatial variations. Daily AOD-PM2.5 relationship in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was established based on the mixed effects model. The model predictions R2, cross-validations R2, RMSE and MAE were 0.92,0.85,12.30 μg/m3, and 9.73 μg/m3, respectively, indicated that the model showed good performance. The annual average PM2.5 concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was 42.98 μg/m3 in 2016 based on the proposed model. The values for April-October and November-March were 43.35 μg/m3 and 38.52 μg/m3. The differences were 0.59,0.7,5.29 μg/m3, respectively, comparing with the ground monitoring PM2.5 data at the corresponding period. PM2.5 concentrations were higher in the south area and lower in the north area in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region with higher concentrations from southwestern to northeastern direction. PM2.5 concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region could be accurately evaluated based on the daily mixed effects model. The distribution of PM2.5 concentrations estimated by the model could provide basic data support for the prevention and control of regional air pollution. |
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| Keywords: | MODIS AOD PM2 5 mixed effects model Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region |
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