气象舒适条件对呼吸系统疾病的影响

采用广义相加模型和分布滞后非线性模型，研究单个气象要素和以"通用的热气候指数"表征的多要素综合效应与北京市2009~2012年呼吸系统疾病急诊人数的暴露-响应关系，并按年龄、性别分层.结果表明，对全人群而言，高温效应即时，低温作用滞后；湿度<30%能显著增加发病风险，且效应持久；3m/s风速对应发病风险最低.少儿（≤ 14岁）受热胁迫影响最强，尤其突出高温高湿作用；成人（15~59岁）受冷胁迫影响强且滞后性；老年患者（>60岁）对冷胁迫敏感，着重防范低温低湿.采用舒适指数探讨环境对呼吸系统疾病的影响优于单要素表征，可加深对发病气象成因的理解，为科学预防、预测预警提供新思路.

The impact of meteorological comfort conditions on respiratory disease

The distributed lag nonlinear model and generalized additive model were applied to study the exposureresponse relationship between meteorological conditions and the number of emergency room (ER) visits for respiratory diseases, from 2009 to 2012 in Beijing, China. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was used as an indicator of climate thermal condition. Immediate influence of high temperatures and lag effect of low temperatures on the incidence were revealed. Relative humidity (RH) <30% significantly increased the risk of onset, and its lag effect reached more than 10days. The RR of wind speed 3m/s was the smallest. When considering the comprehensive effect of multiple factors, children (≤ 14years) were more sensitive to heat stress than cold stress, especially the ‘hot and humidity’ circumstance. While for adults (15~59years), the impact of cold stress was particularly significant, which lagged for 1~2days and lasted a long time. The elders (>60years) were more vulnerable to cold stress than heat stress, the condition that low temperatures and low humidity occur simultaneously should be paid particular attention. Employing UTCI as a characterization of the comprehensive thermal state of the environment is a feasible way to investigate the effects of environmental conditions on the incidence of respiratory diseases, which may enhance related theoretical basis and provide new ideas for disease forecasting and early warning.