唐山市钢铁行业碳排放核算及达峰预测

唐山市作为工业密集型城市，2018年生铁、粗钢和钢材产量约占全国总产量的15%，同时也排放了大量的温室气体和大气污染物。以唐山市为例，研究唐山市钢铁生产碳排放2010—2030年的变化趋势，并确定达峰时间。基于《温室气体排放核算与报告要求》的计算方法，初步建立了可根据设备规模、运行时长、产能利用率和单位产品能耗参数来核算企业CO₂排放的数值算式，并将其应用于唐山市全部钢铁联合企业，计算得出2017年唐山市钢铁行业碳排放量为14042.52万t，碳排放系数为1.616 t CO₂/t钢。与文献、统计年鉴数据对比误差均<10%，表明数值算式有一定的准确性，可为自下而上地快速核算企业或区域的钢铁生产碳排放提供参考。同时，结合唐山市钢铁历史生产情况、生产现状及未来规划，借助LEAP构建了能源需求模型，得到2010—2030年唐山市钢铁生产化石能源消耗和碳排放量的变化趋势，并确定唐山市钢铁生产碳排放已于2018年达峰。

CARBON EMISSION ACCOUNTING AND PEAK FORECASTING OF IRON & STEEL INDUSTRY IN TANGSHAN

Tangshan, as an industrial-intensive city, accounted for about 15% of China’s iron, crude steel, and steel production in 2018, and emitted large amount of greenhouse gases and atmospheric pollutants. This paper took Tangshan as an example and studied trend of the production carbon emission of steel industry from 2010 to 2030 and determined the peak time. Based on the calculation method provided by Greenhouse Gas Emission Accounting and Reporting Requirements, in this paper, we preliminarily established a numerical formula that can calculate the enterprise’s CO₂ emission based on the equipment scale, operating time, capacity utilization rate and unit product energy consumption parameters. Then we applied it into all enterprises of Tangshan in 2017, and the carbon emission was calculated as 140,425,200 tons, and the carbon emission coefficient was 1.616 t CO₂/t steel. Compared with the literature and statistical yearbook data, the relative error was less than 10%, indicating that the numerical formula had a certain accuracy, which could provide references for the bottom-up rapid accounting of carbon emission from steel production in enterprises or regions. At the same time, we combined the historical production status, production status and future planning of the industry, an energy demand model was constructed by LEAP model to obtain the trends of fossil energy consumption and carbon emission of Tangshan’s iron and steel production from 2010 to 2030, and we find the carbon emission had already peaked in 2018.