有毒有害蒸气云扩散的危害估算

因事故排放形成的有毒有害蒸气云,有可能造成爆炸、火灾、中毒等危害后果,但危害后果的大小(危害程度),则与事故造成危害的时刻(延迟时间)有关。笔者在以往研究成果基础上,考虑该因素,并通过引入正态分布假设,时、空变换及误差分析,给出了估算危害程度(特别是延迟爆炸危害)的有效而简便方法,补充了以往危害估算方法(不考虑延迟时间)的不足,提高了危害后果估算精度,可广泛应用于生产安全评价、环境风险评价、风险工程设计、事故应急预案、事故应急救援等工作领域,对于保障环境安全具有显著的科学价值与现实意义。

Estimation of Harmfulness of Poisonous and Hazardous Vapor Cloud Diffusion

The poisonous and hazardous vapor cloud caused by accidental release may give rise to harmful consequences,e.g.explosion,fire or poisoning.Nevertheless,the degree of harmfulness is closely related to time(delayed time) when the hazards take place.Taking full consideration of this factor,based on previous study results,an effective and convenient calculation method for harmfulness especially for negative effects due to delayed explosion is introduced.By applying normal distribution hypothesis,temporal & spatial-transformation concepts and error-analysis,the calculation method overcomes the deficiency in conventional estimation practice that neglects the delay time,resulting in more precise results.Applicable in various fields,such as the production safety assessment,environment risk assessment,design safety engineering,emergency planning and rescue,this method is of great scientific value and realistic significance in terms of guaranteeing the environment safety.