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Protected area planning to conserve biodiversity in an uncertain future |
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| Authors: | Richard Schuster Rachel Buxton Jeffrey O Hanson Allison D Binley Jeremy Pittman Vivitskaia Tulloch Frank A La Sorte Patrick R Roehrdanz Peter H Verburg Amanda D Rodewald Scott Wilson Hugh P Possingham Joseph R Bennett |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;2. School of Planning, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada;3. Conservation Decisions Lab, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;4. Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA;5. Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia, USA;6. Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;7. Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA;8. Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;9. Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia |
| Abstract: | Protected areas are a key instrument for conservation. Despite this, they are vulnerable to risks associated with weak governance, land-use intensification, and climate change. We used a novel hierarchical optimization approach to identify priority areas for expanding the global protected area system that explicitly accounted for such risks while maximizing protection of all known terrestrial vertebrate species. To incorporate risk categories, we built on the minimum set problem, where the objective is to reach species distribution protection targets while accounting for 1 constraint, such as land cost or area. We expanded this approach to include multiple objectives accounting for risk in the problem formulation by treating each risk layer as a separate objective in the problem formulation. Reducing exposure to these risks required expanding the area of the global protected area system by 1.6% while still meeting conservation targets. Incorporating risks from weak governance drove the greatest changes in spatial priorities for protection, and incorporating risks from climate change required the largest increase (2.52%) in global protected area. Conserving wide-ranging species required countries with relatively strong governance to protect more land when they bordered nations with comparatively weak governance. Our results underscore the need for cross-jurisdictional coordination and demonstrate how risk can be efficiently incorporated into conservation planning. Planeación de las áreas protegidas para conservar la biodiversidad en un futuro incierto |
| Keywords: | biodiversity climate change governance land use optimization protected areas risk áreas protegidas biodiversidad cambio climático gestión optimización riesgo uso de suelo |