区域持久性有机物的健康风险评价方法研究

随着城市和工业的发展，工业点源和机动车排放了大量有毒污染物，加剧了城市居民的健康风险.在传统的健康风险评价的基础上，提出了区域持久性有机物的健康风险评价思想，并对研究方法进行了初步探讨.在GIS的环境中，集成了ISCST3(复杂工业源扩散模型)和传统风险评价中的多种风险源累积的风险评价模型，建立起以GIS为基础的RHRA(区域健康风险评价方法).以上海市杨浦区为例，根据当地的气象条件和区域污染源的分布情况，对由该区域固定源和移动源排放的有毒污染物引起的区域人类致癌风险和非致癌风险进行了研究.结果表明:杨浦区的致癌风险值为500～1.0×104，非致癌风险指数为1.32～85.70.模拟得到有毒污染物产生的健康风险等值线图显示，区域中健康风险的大小与道路机动车流量和工业点源的分布高度相关. 

Study on Regional Persistent Organics Health Risk Assessment Method

Along with the development of cities and industry, there are a great deal of airtoxics emitted by industrial emission sources, which has increased the health risk of the people in cities. As the base of traditional health risk assessment, the idea and the method of health risk assessment for regional persistent organics were put forward. Under GIS environment, the integration of air dispersion model (ISCST3 Industrial Source Complex Short Term) and traditional multi-source risk model formed the GIS based RHRA model (Regional Health Risk Assessment). Taking Yangpu District of Shanghai as example, the carcinogenic risk and non-carcinogenic risk brought by local industrial emission sources and mobile sources were studied according to the local weather condition and the distribution of the sources. The result shows that the carcinogenic risk of Yangpu District is between 500～1.0×104, and non-carcinogenic HI is between 1.32～85.7. The contour of health risk was simulated, which shows that the level of regional health risk is highly correlated with the distribution of the industrial emission sources and traffic volume along roadway.