城市外来劳动力流入影响因素分析——基于长三角地区16地级市的实证考察

本文在分析和评价传统理论和已有文献的基础上,突破单一的收入差距影响劳动力流动的传统思维,构建出劳动力流动不仅受迁移地收入的实际效用变动因素的影响,而且受迁移成本变动因素影响的理论模型.并且根据长三角地区16地级市1995-2006年的面板数据,经过单位根检验和协整关系检验,利用回归模型,估计分析了域内外收入差距、直接成本变动、潜在风险成本对外部劳动力流入的影响度.估计结果显示,域内外收入差距与外部劳动力流入正相关,直接成本和潜在风险成本与外部劳动力流入负相关,进一步明确了收入差距和成本变动对劳动力流入的影响程度.鉴于各因素对外部劳动力流入所起的作用,要进一步促进我国长三角地区劳动力的合理流入,必须从以下两个方面着手:一是提高迁入地较高收入的边际效用,二是降低迁入地较高收入的成本率.

Impact Factors Analysis about External Labor Inflow Based on the Yangtze River Delta

Based on the traditional theoretical analysis and existing literature about labor migration, the article breaks the traditional thinking way of single income gap affecting labor mobility. The article draw the conclusion that not only the income gap affects labor migration,but also the cost affects labor migration. According to the data of 16 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta during 1995 to 2006, the article employs unit root test, cointegration test as well as regression model to estimate the impact of the income gap and the cost on external labor inflow. Estimates show that the income gap promotes the labor mobility, and the cost obstructs the labor mobility, thus clarifies the impact degree of income gap and cost changes.In view of the roles about all the factors on external labor inflow,the labor mobility in the Yangtze River Delta can be made from two aspects: increase the marginal utility of higher income and reduce the cost of higher income.