50年来上海市台风灾害分析及预评估

依据1949~2005年中国气象局上海台风研究所的实测数据和前人的研究成果,筛选出对上海地区造成严重影响的84个台风,对这84个成灾台风的最大风速、过程雨量以及吴淞口、黄埔公园潮位站数据分析,结合收集到的其中57个台风的完整灾情数据计算灾情指数。综合研究得出:近50年来,成灾台风生成频数的年际变化比较明显;台风造成的人员伤亡、农田受淹面积和房屋倒损3个灾情参数在这50年里有一定的起伏变化,但综合灾情指数变化的幅度不大,从1980年代开始灾情指数有上升趋势。成灾台风灾情指数与上海市郊吕泗站最大风速和过程雨量成正相关。吴淞口、黄埔公园的潮位站数据与成灾台风直接经济损失对应性较好。

Analysis and Evaluation of Typhoon Disasters In Shanghai in Past 50 Years

Based on the previous research achievements and the data of 1949~2005 from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,CMA,84 typhoons that caused great impact to Shanghai are screened out.The maximum wind speed,total precipitation and tide level data of 84 typhoons observed at the Wusong and Huangpu Park tide gauge stations are analyzed.The damage indexes are calculated according to disaster data collected from 57 typhoons.The results show an obvious interannual variation in disastrous typhoon frequency and fluctuant changes in 3 disaster indexes,casualties,inundated cropland area and collapsed or damaged houses in the recent 50 years.But no remarkable changes in synthetic disaster condition indexes are seen.Since the 1980s,the disaster indexes have increased.There is a positive correlation between the damage index of disastrous typhoon and the maximum wind speed and total precipitation at Lusi tide gauge station.The data observed at Wusong and Huangpu Prak tide gauge stations are of a good corresponding relationship with the direct economic loss resulted from disastrous typhoon.