民航事故征候的关联度分析和灰色模型预测

民航事故征候的分析和预测是民航安全研究的重要内容,其目的是掌握民航事故征候影响因素的影响程度和未来发展状况,以此提出相应的安全措施,减少民航事故.通过对民航事故征候及其影响因子作灰色关联度分析,发现机组失误是关键因子,其后依次为总飞行时间、机械原因和天气原因;运用灰色模型对现有2001-2004年机组失误导致的事故征候的实测统计数据进行分析,预测出2005-2009年机组失误导致的事故征候次数分别为37、44、52、61和73;经过残差、后验差等检验分析,发现该模型精度较高,效果较理想.预测的趋势指示出机组失误导致的事故征候随时间的推移在增加.所以,在以后的航空安全管理工作中要着重加强机组管理,有效的预防和矫正机组行为失误,从而达到减少事故征候的目的.

Grey relation analysis and grey model for civil aviation accidents forecasting

This paper is aimed at presenting the authors' analysis and their method for forecasting civil aviation accidents with the purpose to understand and control the influential factors and the development trend of such accidents in the future.By means of Grey Relational Analysis of the data of past accidents and the corresponding influential factors,it can be found that the crew members are the key factor,with the overall flying time being the second,with the quality and performance of the aircraft following as the third and the weather conditions-the fourth.Using the grey model for civil aviation accidents forecasting to analyze the actual statistic data gained over the 2001-2004 accidents,forecasts have also been made as to the accidents likely to be happening during the period of 2005-2009.The actual results of analysis and forecast data can be shown respectively as follows: there were 37 accidents in 2005,44 accidents in 2006,and there would be 52 accidents in 2007,61 accidents in 2008 and 73 accidents in 2009,respectively.So far it can be seen that the model is expected to be applicable and reliable with the gained results accounted for through the margin verification and evaluation.Therefore,the model is expected to be taken as a helping device for the future civil aviation safety management and control.