Simulation of recovery of pre-disturbance size structure in populations of Porites spp. damaged by the crown of thorns starfish Acanthaster planci

Outbreaks of the crown of thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (L.) have caused high levels of mortality and injury in corals on the Great Barrier Reef. In surveys conducted in 1985 and 1986, it was estimated that a quarter of the massive Porites spp. corals surveyed at five reefs — John Brewer, Rib, Potter, Feather and Green Island — had been killed outright. In addition, there was minor to severe injury to colonies throughout the coral's size range. A population model was used to evaluate this damage. The evaluations were based on simulations of the time necessary for prior abundances of large colonies (>2 m diam) to be re-established and on simulations of the number of additional disturbances the populations could withstand before becoming locally extinct. The affect of recurrent disturbances on populations receiving recruits was also simulated. Assuming no further disturbance, the model predicts minimum recovery times in excess of 50 yr for most of the populations, and 9 to 100 yr for sub-populations within reefs. For populations subjected to repeated disturbance every 10 to 30 yr, it predicted that all large colonies would soon be lost unless there was both low background mortality and a major recruitment of Porites spp. between outbreaks. In the worst-case scenario of failed recruitment and high background mortality, four of the five populations could withstand as few as two to three additional disturbances equivalent to those earlier in this decade.