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VALIDATION OF POLITICAL SIMULATION MODELS -WATER RESOURCE PROJECTS1
Authors:Jonathan W Bulkley  Julie Antill
Abstract:ABSTRACT. The critical role of political processes in water resource projects has recently been placed in a new perspective Hall, 1970]. The “political hassle” period of institutional interaction which serves to resolve political conflicts over such aspects as organizational growth and survival, responsibility for economic liabilities, and responsibility for economic benefits, requires systematic analysis in order to improve our capability to implement water projects. Failure to properly assess the political aspects of a proposed water project may result in extensive delays with significant economic losses. The complexities associated with water use and re-use have created the need for new institutional arrangements which can more effectively function to implement policies and programs. One tool which has recently become available for the research investigator concerned with institutional interactions and political processes associated with water resource projects is the technique of computer simulation of such institutional interaction. In theory, this new approach will enable the investigator to assess the political feasibility or political acceptability of a proposed water project given existing institutional structures. Furthermore, the investigator has the opportunity to experiment with new and innovative institutional arrangements which may in turn enhance the political acceptability of a proposed project. The specific material presented within this paper reports upon the validation of an existing computer simulation model designed to replicate political interactions in resource allocation problems-including water resource problems. This validation effort is done by taking an actual water problem and comparing what the political simulation models predicts in terms of political outcomes with what actually takes place. The case study in question is the formulation and legislative development of the Michigan Bond Issue for Water Pollution Control.
Keywords:KEY WORDS  political models  simulation models  computer models  political science  Michigan  water pollution control
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