流域非点源分布式模型AnnAGNPS参数的不确定性研究

流域非点源分布式模型的不确定性研究成为目前的热点问题之一。本研究以宁波市章溪河流域为研究区，通过GIS软件AreView和AnnAGNPS模型，集成利用莫里斯分类筛选法，选取临界源面积、SCS曲线系数、水土保持因子、饱和导水率、氮磷吸收率、施肥量等6个因子进行敏感性分析。模拟结果表明，土壤饱和导水率、水土保持因子和径流曲线CN值对模型输出结果影响较大；水土保持因子对泥沙、总磷和总有机碳负荷的模拟结果影响最大，均呈显著负效应；径流曲线CN值对总氮负荷计算结果影响最大，呈显著正效应。

Study on the Uncertainty of the Parameters in Annualized Agricultural Non-point Source Model for River Watershed

The study of distribution model for non-point source water becomes one of the hot questions. In this paper, a research was conducted in the Watershed of Zhangxi River in Ningbo City. Based on the ArcView of Geographic Information System （GIS） and Annualized Agricultural Non-point Source （AnnAGNPS） model, Morris was adopted to analyze the sensitivity for selected six factors including critical area, Soil Conservation Sen＇ice （SCS） curve coefficient, soil and water conservation, saturated hydraulic conductivity, absorption rate of nitrogen and phosphorus and fertilizing amount. The simulation results showed that the factors such as soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, water and soil conservation and the runoff curve value （CN） affected the model output significantly. The soil and water conservation had the maximum effect on the simulation results of sediment, total phosphorus and organic carbon load, all of which were significant negative ones. And the CN of runoff had the maximum effect on the total nitrogen load with a significant positive one.