粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅰ.科技进步增产理论、模型及其应用

粮食增产趋势及增产原因是国家制定宏观农业政策和措施的依据。科技进步增产理论是指：气候是波动的，科技是持续进步的，它是粮食多年持续增产的主要驱动力；科技进步增产预测模型是多年平均单产移动的回归方程。全国和东北三省粮食增产潜力案例分析结果表明：科技进步单产加速时间最早的是辽宁省，最晚的是黑龙江省；与全国相比，吉林省和辽宁省科技进步贡献率高于全国平均水平，黑龙江省低于全国平均水平，吉林省最高。本文初步得出以下结论：科技进步增产理论科学、模型实用、预测结果准确。

The Theory,Method and Its Application of the Grain Yield ForecastⅠ. The Theory,Model and Its Application of Scientific and Technological Progress in Increasing Grain Yield

The increasing trend and its causes of grain yield are the basis for a nation to formulate the macroscopic agriculture policies and measures. Increasing Production Theory of Scientific and Technological Progress（IPTSTP）is defined as follows： climate is undulating, while the technological progress is sustainable and it is the main driving force of sustainable increasing production for many years. Increasing Production Forecasting Model of Scientific and Technological Progress（IPFMSTP）is a regression equation for the moving average data of the per unit area yield. The IPTSTP and its methods were applied to analyze the grain yield potential in China and northeast China, respectively. The results showed that Liaoning Province was the earliest one which accelerated per unit area yield by scientific and technological progress, and the latest one was Heilongjiang Province. Compared with other provinces at present, the contribution rate of the scientific and technologi-cal progress in Heilongjiang province was lower than the average level in China, while the contribution rate in Liaoning Prorince and Jilin Province were higher than the national average level. The contribution rate of the scientific and technological progress in Jilin Province was the highest.