EVALUATION OF PRACTICES IN WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: Snowmelt runoff is a primary source of water supply in much of the Western United States. Multipurpose planning requires long-range forecasts and the accuracy of the forecasts has a significant effect on economic benefits. In an effort to increase the accuracy of snowrnelt runoff forecasts, selected practices in water supply forecasting were evaluated. These practices include 1) using multiple regression in developing forecasting models;2) using a model that was calibrated to make forecasts an April 1 for making forecasts at other times;3) using maximum snow water equivalent measurements in forecast equations; and 4) using weighted snow water equivalent measurements for making forecasts. The results of a case study indicate that forecasting accuracy is significantly affected by these practices. Goodness-of-fit statistics may not be indicative of the accuracy of forecasts when the prediction equations are used to make forecasts for dates other than that used in calibration. The use of maximum snow water equivalentmeasurements and weighted averages did not improve forecast accuracy.