2003—2013年中国县域单元粮食增产格局及贡献因素研究

2003—2013年,中国粮食产量逐年增加,实现了前所未有的“十连增”,2015年更是达到了“十二连增”。文章采用2003—2013年粮食播种面积、产量等为基础数据,以分县为研究单元,定量分析了2003—2013年间中国分县粮食增产的特征、格局与贡献因素,结果表明：1）2003—2013年间我国超过75%的县域单元粮食均出现增产,但主要增产仍集中在东北和黄淮海平原地区的产粮大县;2）粮食增产增幅的两极分化较为明显,处于“滞后增产”和“超速增产”的县域单元占比均较高,其中“超速增产”的县域单元主要分布在松嫩平原、三江平原、黄淮海平原、江汉平原、鄱阳湖平原、黄土高原以及新疆等地;3）对于大部分县域单元而言,播种面积和单产水平对其粮食增产均有正向贡献作用,其中东北平原、内蒙古高原西部、河西走廊、新疆、江汉平原、洞庭湖平原等地播种面积贡献较大,而单产水平贡献较大的地区为黄淮海平原、黄土高原、青藏高原东南部等地。

Study on Spatiotemporal Patterns and Contribution Factors of China’s Grain Output Increase at the County Level during 2003-2013

China achieved ten-year consecutive grain production increase which had never appeared in history no matter in China or in the world during 2003-2013. Till 2015, twelve-year consecutive grain output increase has been achieved. The purpose of this paper is to detect the spatiotemporal patterns and the main investigated contributions of grain output increase at the county level during 2003-2013. Based on factor contribution analysis and GIS, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of grain output increase at the county level, taking use of planted area output and yield per unit area. The results showed that: 1) the grain output increase had appeared in more than 75% of the counties in China, most of these counties located in the major grain-producing regions in Northeast Plain and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. At the scope of grain output increase accumulation, half of national grain output increase concentrated in the top 198 counties (which accounted for 8.49% of counties in China), and 80% of national grain output increase concentrated in the top 550 counties (which accounted for 23.60% of counties in China); 2) the polarization of grain output increase at the county level was significant: the counties in hysteretic growth and overspeed growth occupied 33.98% and 33.15% of counties respectively, in which the overspeed counties mostly concentrated in Songnen Plain, Sanjiang Plain, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Jianghan Plain, Poyang Lake Plain, Loess Plateau, and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region; 3) as for most counties whose grain output increased during 2003-2013, the expansion of planted area and the promotion of yield per unit area were both important reasons. There are 893 counties where the former played more important role, mainly located in Northeast Plain, the west of Inner-Mongolia Plateau, Hexi Corridor, Jianghan Plain, Dongting Lake Plain and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. There are 877 counties where the latter played more important role, mainly located in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Loess Plateau, and the southeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In general, major grain-producing counties were big contributors to the ten-year consecutive grain output increase from 2003 to 2013. Fiscal support for major grain-producing counties was needed to keep the grain production capacity. Only in this way, the national grain security will be ensured.