基于区间数多目标规划的河北省水资源与产业结构优化

河北省日益尖锐的水资源供需矛盾已经成为影响社会经济持续发展和生态建设的主要制约因素。论文在河北省宏观经济水资源和水环境投入产出表基础上,建立了产业结构的区间数多目标优化模型,确立了3个目标函数以及相应的约束条件,并对产业结构的优化调整进行了模型计算,结合相关政策分析设计了产业结构调整方案,即适当扩大农林牧渔业、食品加工业、木材加工业、非金属制品业、服务业、建筑业以及商业饮食业所占比重;对于开采洗选业、金属加工业、纺织服装业、造纸印刷业以及能源供应业等行业可适当减少产值规模,其他行业基本不变。执行调整方案后,预计产业增加值最高可达55 181.708亿元,最低为51 191.163亿元,平均值为53 186.436亿元;用水总量可控制在151.67×10⁸~176.02×10⁸ t范围内,COD排放量则可控制在117.31×10⁴~136.80×10⁴ t之间。调整后的产业机构更能适应河北省可持续发展的需要。

Water Resources and Industrial Structure Optimization of Hebei Province Based on Interval Multi-objective Programming

The increasingly sharp contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has become the major constraint that affects the sustainable development and ecological construction in Hebei Province. An interval multi-objective optimization model of industrial structure was set up based on water resource input-output table, and three objective functions and corresponding constraint conditions were determined. The optimization adjustment of water resources and industrial structure was calculated and analyzed. According to related policies, the adjustment programs of industrial structure in Hebei Province were put forward, i.e. expanding farms, forestry, fishery, wood products, nonmetallic mineral products, services, construction and food services, continuing to decrease mining, fabricated metal products, textile and apparel products, paper products, printing and energy supplies, and keeping unchanged of other industries. After the implementation of the adjusted structural programs, the added values of Hebei Provinces are expected to reach at least 5 119.116 3 billion yuan, up to 5 518.170 8 billion yuan, and averagely 5 318.643 6 billion yuan; the total amount of water consumption can be controlled within the range of 151.67×10⁸-176.02×10⁸ t; the quantity of pollutant COD can be controlled within the range of 117.31×10⁴-136.80×10⁴ t. The adjusted industrial structure can meet requirements of the development of Hebei Province.